Calculi's Politics Blog

US Trade reality from last two decades

US Trade with its partners over two decades

USA is still the largest trading partner of many countries and the largest market for any kind of goods. This infographic shows how the trade has changed over last two decades with its trade partners.

It’s interesting to see how big jumps China made in terms of ranking as well as volumes. The imports from China to USA made big changes in shear numbers as soon as China entered WTO. Whatever were the talks about China, before it entering the organization, honestly, China has benefited a lot from it.

Other very visible characteristic is how this trade trend for Taiwan is exactly opposite to what China has experienced. In my opinion, Taiwan has lost a big ground in trade with USA. If it continues like this, Taiwan may lose an importance even as a political ally in sensitive South China Sea. It should also be noted that China is having similar dilema when it comes to North and South Korea conflict, where South Korea is much bigger trade partner to China than the North one.

India is not a grand partner in trade with USA compared to others. This nation is nowhere to see in US exports, whereas it seems to have gained ground in IT exports due to Y2K problem. But it is still well minuscule. Based on internal political system, multi-ethnic democracy, common interests, this may change soon and all the mistakes from the past done by foreign policy of either countries can be undone in decades ahead. Recent exclusive nuclear deal and large military orders shall increase the share of US exports to India. Removed restrictions and tarifs for indian products, which were imposed amid indian nuclear test decades ago, can well help indian exports to USA.

Whatever other argues, but USA definitely thinks of India as a reasonable and eligible counterweight to China. If this century is going to be an Asian century, then we have very interesting times ahead.

Source of infographic: Where and What Is U.S. Trading

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Indian economy to run past US by 2050

Extract from IBT article :Indian economy to run past US by 2050; China will do so in 2018 – International Business Times.

“In many ways the renewed dominance by 2050 of China and India, with their much larger populations, is a return to the historical norm prior to the Industrial Revolution of the late 18th and 19th centuries that caused a shift in global economic power from Asia to Western Europe and the US – this temporary shift in power is now going into reverse,” said John Hawksworth, chief economist at PwC, said.

Now the World Economic Forum 2011 is going on in Davos, this news look more relevant. In terms of PPP (Purchasing Power Parity), these economies are going to overtake many western economies way too early. This can happen, only if the economic growth in these developing countries stay as it is and I’m very optimistic about it.

Popularity: 52% [?]

Letter from my old blog:
India-China past and future

For more than 2000 years, two of the world’s ancient cultures shared their ideas, science, knowledge and expertise, providing new dimension for human social development. But it is the very recent history of few decades which shows complete different picture. Both nations, regarded one as largest democracy and one as largest communist nation, have seen each other with skepticism thru’ gunpoint. Democracy (the modern one) and communism, both are western ideologies, which still divides Asia geopolitically. Without taking a side of particular nation – more precisely particular ideology – I’d like to present some articles I’ve found on Internet, which summarizes the conflict between India and China, a more product of misunderstanding and mistaken indian policies than true clash between ideologies. Continue reading…

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